AGP Executive Report

EU Enlargement Safeguards: EU enlargement chief Marta Kos says Brussels wants “no more Viktor Orbán” by adding a 15-year probation for new members, with possible loss of voting rights or EU funds for breaches of democratic values. EU Decision-Making Shift: The Commission also floats wider use of qualified majority voting for interim enlargement steps, including opening negotiating clusters, to speed up the process without lowering standards. Montenegro’s EU Path: Brussels is preparing pre-enlargement plans for Montenegro and other frontrunners, while Von der Leyen signals Montenegro could be ready by 2028 and frames reforms as “EU borders” preparation. Regional Diplomacy: Montenegro and Bangladesh discussed creating a parliamentary friendship group. Infrastructure in Montenegro: Montenegro broke ground on a €237.5m Budva bypass to cut summer congestion, with tunnels and bridges and a four-year build. Croatia-Montenegro Dispute: Croatia demands return of military property worth over $2.7bn from Montenegro, including claims beyond the training ship Jadran. Energy Security: An energy forum in Belgrade highlights oil-stock preparedness in Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia as a key part of crisis solidarity.

EU Enlargement Watch: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Montenegro is being prepared to take responsibility for EU external borders and, “over time,” join Schengen, pointing to a new border police coordination center in Podgorica as the next step toward EU membership by 2028. EU Reform Plans: Brussels is also set to discuss pre-enlargement reforms that would speed up accession and shift decision-making toward majority voting, with safeguards aimed at easing member-state fears. Montenegro Infrastructure: Montenegro broke ground on a €237.47m Budva bypass to cut summer congestion, including tunnels and bridges, with construction expected to take four years. Regional Politics: Serbia’s Marko Đurić urged stability and a forward-looking approach at the Berlin Process meeting in Montenegro, while Bosnia’s election results point to continued nationalist dominance and low turnout. Energy & Work: Germany plans to halve Western Balkans work-visa quotas, while energy poverty remains severe in the region, with Albania and Kosovo among the worst. Montenegro Accountability: A rise in whistleblowing in Montenegro is reported, but convictions remain rare.

EU Borders Prep: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Montenegro is being readied to take over responsibility for its external borders once it joins the EU, with a future move toward Schengen, as a new border police coordination center opens in Podgorica. EU Enlargement Push: Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos praises Ukraine’s reform drive despite wartime conditions and says Montenegro is among the frontrunners, with EU plans expected to outline faster membership routes for candidates including Montenegro. Montenegro–Bangladesh Links: Montenegro’s parliament discusses forming a Bangladesh–Montenegro parliamentary friendship group to share democratic practices and strengthen cooperation. Energy Security: An Energy Community oil expert says Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia lead the region on energy-crisis preparedness, stressing that oil stockpiles and solidarity matter when supply shocks hit. Governance Watch: A Montenegro whistleblowing report shows more people are speaking up since 2020, but convictions remain rare. Regional Context: Bosnia’s election results point to tighter nationalist control, with new presidency seats shaping the country’s next political phase.

EU Enlargement Push: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says Montenegro can join the EU by 2028, calling it “within reach” and pointing to Podgorica’s progress on reforms and preparations for EU-style border control and, eventually, Schengen. EU Roadmaps: Brussels is also preparing a faster membership route for Albania, Montenegro, Ukraine and Moldova, with new steps and possible deadlines expected soon. Regional Connectivity: Croatia signed on to an Adriatic-Ionian rail corridor plan linking Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Greece—aimed at boosting passenger and freight links across the region. Montenegro at the Vatican: Pope Leo XIV met Montenegro’s President Jakov Milatović, discussing EU integration and regional issues. Portugal-Ronaldo Fallout: Portugal’s prime minister intervened after Cristiano Ronaldo’s camp walkout, as prosecutors probe the legality of U.S. use of the Lajes Air Base during the Iran conflict.

EU Enlargement Push: The European Commission is preparing a faster membership route for Albania, Montenegro, Ukraine and Moldova, with a new plan due Oct. 6 that lays out reforms and possible deadlines, while EU leaders weigh enlargement and internal changes later this month. Montenegro’s EU Borders: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Brussels is preparing for Montenegro’s external borders to become EU borders and, in time, for Montenegro to join Schengen, pointing to a new border police coordination center in Podgorica. Von der Leyen in Podgorica: During her visit, she backed Montenegro’s goal of joining by 2028, calling it “within reach,” and said the Commission will publish assessments and individual roadmaps to speed integration. Pope Meets Montenegro President: Pope Leo XIV received President Jakov Milatović at the Vatican, discussing Montenegro’s EU integration and regional issues. Regional Rail Vision: Croatia signed on to an Adriatic-Ionian railway corridor linking Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Greece, aiming to boost connectivity and investment. Portugal Legal Scrutiny: Portugal’s prosecutors opened an inquiry into whether U.S. use of the Lajes Air Base during the Iran conflict complied with Portuguese and international law.

EU Enlargement Watch: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Montenegro it can join the EU by 2028, praising Podgorica’s reforms and saying Brussels is preparing extra steps to speed integration. Border Readiness: She also said the EU is preparing Montenegro’s borders to become EU borders, with a new border police building in Podgorica aimed at closer coordination with EU agencies and safer regional security. Diplomatic Spotlight: Pope Leo XIV met Montenegro President Jakov Milatović at the Vatican, discussing strong Holy See ties and Montenegro’s EU path amid wider regional conflicts. Regional Connectivity: Croatia signed on to an Adriatic-Ionian rail corridor plan linking Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Greece, pushing for future EU transport planning and investment. International Legal Pressure: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit Portugal as prosecutors investigate the Azores airbase’s role in the Iran conflict—an issue that could raise questions for decision-makers.

EU Accession Watch: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Montenegro is on track to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028, with borders set to function as EU borders and a future Schengen push backed by a new border police coordination center in Podgorica. Border & Security: The Commission framed the upgrade as safer borders for Montenegro and Europe, while warning the final accession stretch needs political stability and broad support for reforms. EU Enlargement Timetable: Brussels is also preparing for a possible Oct. 13 “Super Tuesday,” with two more negotiation clusters for Ukraine and potential chapter closures for Montenegro. Regional Connectivity: Croatia signed an Adriatic-Ionian rail corridor initiative linking Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Greece, aiming to boost passenger and freight links and align with EU transport planning. Diplomacy & Politics: Montenegro’s EU path also intersects with regional Berlin Process events, including a civil society forum in Pristina focused on “Proof, Not Promises.”

EU Accession Push: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Podgorica Montenegro is on track to become the EU’s 28th member by 2028, urging political stability and broad support to close remaining chapters and prepare the accession treaty. Border Security Upgrade: She also backed plans for Montenegro’s border police to take on EU-style external border responsibilities, with a new coordination center to link Montenegro with EU agencies. EU Enlargement Timetable: Brussels is set to open additional negotiating clusters for Ukraine (and possibly Moldova) on Oct. 13, while Montenegro may close more chapters—another sign the enlargement process is speeding up. Portugal Strike Disruptions: A 24-hour public-sector strike in Portugal hit schools, hospitals and services, with unions demanding pay rises ahead of budget talks. Ronaldo Portugal Future in Doubt: Cristiano Ronaldo walked out of Portugal’s camp after being left out again by coach Jorge Jesus, leaving his international future uncertain. Regional Tensions: Croatia is pressing Montenegro for over €2.4bn in Yugoslavia-era military property claims, tying the dispute to Montenegro’s EU path. Cybercrime Case: Montenegro extradited an Iranian-linked suspect to the US over alleged hacking attacks worth $3.4bn.

EU Accession Push: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Podgorica Montenegro could join the EU as the bloc’s 28th member by 2028, saying Brussels will back the “final stretch” if political stability holds and Montenegro can close remaining chapters by year-end. EU Enlargement Process: The Commission is also weighing practical fixes for Montenegro’s language requirements for EU law, with interim options under discussion amid identity-sensitive language politics. Berlin Process Civil Society: The Civil Society & Think tank Forum of the Berlin Process will run in Pristina from 5–7 October, with regional groups feeding recommendations into the leaders’ summit in Podgorica on 22 October. Cybercrime Case: Montenegro extradited an Iranian-Turkish man, Amir Barati, to the US over alleged hacking of universities and other targets, with US claims of $3.4 billion in damage. Regional Security & Justice: A neo-Nazi-linked alleged plot involving Montenegro’s PM is set for trial, while EU officials continue to stress reforms and rule-of-law progress as the enlargement clock ticks.

EU Enlargement Push: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrapped up talks in Pristina and Podgorica, backing Kosovo’s EU path while urging institutional stability, and highlighting Montenegro’s “final sprint” toward accession, with Germany also signaling optimism if reforms keep moving. Berlin Process in Montenegro: Foreign ministers met in Pržno near Budva, with EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos saying Montenegro has closed 18 chapters and could close more mid-October, while Serbia’s Marko Djuric stressed regional stability and reforms. Montenegro’s Accession Details: Brussels is also weighing contingency plans over whether Montenegro can translate and apply EU laws on time, including possible temporary language derogations. Regional Cooperation & Security: Montenegro hosted talks with France’s Western Balkans envoy on connectivity and security, and the Berlin Process agenda tied EU integration to resilience against hybrid threats. US-Montenegro Cyber Case: Montenegro extradited an Iranian-Turkish dual national to the US over alleged $3.4B cyberattacks on 150+ universities. Local Governance/Justice: UNDP’s $5m Balkan climate resilience initiative is underway across Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.

EU Enlargement Push: Germany’s foreign minister said Montenegro is “on the right track” and could finish accession talks by end-2026 if reforms keep moving, while the Berlin Process meeting near Budva heard enlargement is a “strategic, security and economic” priority. EU Single Market Plan: Brussels is drafting “gradual integration” that could give candidates earlier access to parts of the single market and EU programmes like research—if they align with EU security and foreign policy. Montenegro’s EU Hurdle: Montenegro’s accession may be slowed by a language/translation bottleneck, with the EU weighing temporary workarounds after Croatia raised concerns about translation quality. EU Commissioner Before Membership: New ideas would let Albania and Montenegro appoint an EU commissioner after signing an accession treaty but before all member states ratify entry, plus earlier access to EU programmes. Local Politics Watch: Montenegro’s ruling coalition faces a fresh test after MPs blocked a speaker vote tied to the Mandić/Mladić controversy, with Brussels warning there’s no room for glorifying war criminals. Diplomacy: Montenegro and the EU also discussed strengthening judicial cooperation, as the EU’s top leadership continues its Western Balkans tour.

EU Enlargement Roadmaps: Brussels is preparing a “gradual integration” plan that would give EU candidate countries earlier access to the single market, research and industrial cooperation—if they align with EU foreign policy and restrict transfers of key technologies to rivals. Western Balkans Focus: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has kicked off a three-day tour starting in Tirana, with meetings planned in Pristina, Podgorica and Skopje, and a push for roadmaps for Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine. Enlargement Safeguards: The Commission is also weighing tougher democracy and rule-of-law safeguards for new members, including temporary limits on certain rights and a clearer path using qualified-majority voting. Montenegro in the Mix: Montenegro is cited as an example of centralized project delivery in a related EU infrastructure push, while Montenegro–UAE judicial cooperation talks were reported this week. Regional Security & Crime: A study highlights Montenegro’s role in illicit cigarette flows across the Bosnia–Montenegro border toward the EU, with the port of Bar flagged as a key logistics hub. Culture: Filming has wrapped on Montenegrin short film “Sote,” a thriller-drama inspired by true events.

EU Enlargement Watch: The European Commission is set to propose a major overhaul of how the bloc takes decisions and add new safeguards against democratic backsliding, as Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova push toward EU membership. Brussels is also weighing “gradual integration” for candidates—earlier access to parts of the single market, research and industrial cooperation—if they align with EU rules and stand with the EU against hostile states. Von der Leyen Balkan Tour: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen begins a Balkan trip in Tirana, then heads to Kosovo and Montenegro, as Brussels works on step-by-step timetables, including roadmaps for Montenegro and others. Judicial Cooperation: Montenegro and the UAE discussed strengthening judicial cooperation, with a Montenegrin Supreme Court delegation meeting UAE counterparts in Abu Dhabi. Berlin Process: Bosnia’s foreign minister will join a Berlin Process ministerial meeting in Pržno on Oct. 1, hosted during Montenegro’s presidency, focusing on regional cooperation and EU enlargement benefits. Local Governance & Housing: Portugal’s PM urged opposition to scrutinise the budget responsibly, while Portugal debates loosening rental rules—an issue that echoes wider housing tensions across the region. Security & Crime: A report flags Montenegro as a key hub in illicit cigarette flows through the Bosnia-Montenegro borderland toward the EU. Diplomacy: Papua New Guinea and Montenegro formally established diplomatic relations.

EU Enlargement Safeguards: The European Commission is drafting new tools to protect EU democracy and reduce veto power as Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova push toward membership, including a “temporary political commitment” and a safeguard clause that could suspend new members’ rights. EU Decision-Making Overhaul: Separate drafts also outline a major shift away from unanimity in accession talks using legal bridging clauses and wider qualified-majority voting, with an “emergency brake” for vital national interests. Montenegro–China Ties: China’s foreign minister is expected to visit Montenegro by mid-October as the two countries mark 20 years of diplomatic relations, with talks likely to focus on investment, infrastructure and tourism. Diplomacy Boost for Montenegro: Papua New Guinea formally established diplomatic relations with Montenegro, aiming to expand cooperation in trade, tourism, agriculture, renewables and technology. Culture & Heritage: Sharjah’s SIACH awards highlighted a Montenegrin winner in cultural heritage research, while FilmFestival Cottbus 2026 opened industry accreditation and previewed a programme including a Wajda retrospective. Sports & Society: Montenegro’s EU path also intersects with regional politics as Serbia’s election lists progress and Montenegro’s own institutional tensions remain in the spotlight.

EU Border Crackdown: The European Commission is preparing a five-point plan to digitize external border monitoring, counter smuggling and trafficking, and tackle disinformation that fuels irregular migration, including tougher sanctions and expanded Europol/Frontex roles. EU Enlargement Roadmaps: Brussels is drafting step-by-step accession roadmaps for Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania, with indicative deadlines and reform deliverables—while requiring EU members’ consent to keep talks moving. Decision-Making Overhaul: The Commission also plans a major reform to bypass national vetoes using transitional legal tools and wider qualified-majority voting, aiming to speed up enlargement without changing the Lisbon Treaty. Montenegro–China Ties: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Montenegro by mid-October, with talks likely to focus on investment, infrastructure and tourism during the 20-year diplomatic milestone. Montenegro Politics: Milo Đukanović denied any involvement in Serbia’s election campaign tied to Ilija Srdanović, calling claims a “blatant lie.” Regional Environment: A report says the Western Balkans still sends over 83% of municipal waste to landfills, with recycling lagging far behind EU levels.

EU Accession Roadmaps: The European Commission is drafting step-by-step “roadmaps” for Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Albania, with clearer reform priorities, indicative deadlines for closing negotiation clusters, and commitments from EU members—while Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Türkiye and Serbia are not getting the same plans. China-Montenegro Ties: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to visit Montenegro by mid-October for talks with President Jakov Milatović, PM Milojko Spajić and FM Ervin Ibrahimović, as the two countries mark 20 years of diplomacy. Government Tech Upgrade: Montenegro is pushing ahead with plans to sign a contract before end-2026 for a central government data centre, with Hungary’s 4iG set as preferred contractor. Visa Policy Shift: Montenegro is moving to end visa-free arrangements for Russians, Belarusians and Turks from 1 November. Regional Waste Reality: Western Balkans waste management remains weak, with over 83% of municipal waste still going to landfills—Montenegro included as it expands landfill-gas electricity. Sports & Culture: Nations League action continues across Europe, while Montenegro-linked film production is highlighted at the San Sebastián industry programme.